Monday, September 19, 2011

Obama's Plan for Keeping His Job: Proactive Proposals and Lots of 'Em

Last week President Obama unveiled the general theme of his Jobs Act before the United States Congress. It basically outlined a plan for massive infrastructure spending across all 50 states that would put millions to work and provide billions of dollars of tax cuts for companies that hire. Half the room liked it, half the room hated it. As far as Americans were concerned, the majority remained skeptical that the jobs bill would do anything to lower unemployment by a margin of 51 percent to 40 percent. Across the board, independents and the general public alike generally disapprove of the job the President is doing when it comes to fixing the economy.

Next Monday the President will send a debt reduction plan to Congress's bipartisan debt committee, with promises that it will shave more than the $1.5 trillion goal the committee hopes to achieve through the ultimate plan that moves forward to the floor. It's certain to propose major revenue increases, which Republican lawmakers won't like. But it's also sure to include measures to cut entitlement programs, which Democrats aren't going to like either.

By the end of the year, expect a few more proposals meant to mend the ailing economy. Starting in early 2012 as the race for the White House gets underway, expect the President to be rolling out one solution after another, shellacking the House and Senate with suggestions that incorporate ideas from both parties. Then, in the summer, Obama will start taking his ideas on the road to the American people. Local mom and pops forced to run their enterprises on small business credit cards are going to listen, and so will the unemployed.

Meanwhile, those in Congress who disagree with his agenda and his political opponents for the presidency are going to have to come up with equal and opposite ideas of their own. They can't just be printed pamphlets spouting the usual bullet points on spending cuts and austerity, because what the President will be bringing to the table will be much more sophisticated. They're going to need to present solutions at a rate equal to the commander-in-chief. For those wishing to take his job, that's a political tight-rope.

So they'll try to say he's done his job poorly so far, and his legislative opponents will oppose every economic solution he makes because any victory for him will spell disaster for them at the polls come November. The President will in turn do what he does best and stick to the business at-hand. Chances are he will rarely address any issue other than those that matter in the minds of his supervisors, the American people, ie economic recovery. How he sells his poor ratings to the public will be the problem of his political team. But he knows as well as they do that at the end of the day, a good employee is one who provides real solutions to problems. Rhetoric is great, but business is business.

Obama will be going to Republican-held districts around the country to tell their constituents the immediate, local problems that can be solved with his solutions. He'll point to the bridges that need fixing, the schools that need upgrades, and say how many jobs are being kept from them because of partisan bickering. When opponents point to the debt he'll point to his debt reduction solutions.

Will his bosses like what they hear? So far they remain skeptical. But opposed to the alternative, which is thus far the promises of this year of austerity and economic dipping we've experienced due to the change in Congress and resulting bickering, what choice will they have? The American voter wants substance. Without it, there's little to vote for, and nothing to hope for.

Monday, September 05, 2011

Take a Hint from China: U.S. T-Bonds are Sure to be Safe for Decades

Doubts about the fidelity of United States Federal government debt is all the rage these days. At the center of debates that cover the future state of our collective collection and spending of capital is the way American lawmakers plan to solve our looming super-debt. Simply put, some people are seriously doubting the US' ability to solve its debt crisis in the long-run. If the US were to fail to balance its books, then the once-considered invincible and immortally secure value of the US Treasury Bond, which in essence is an investment in future American success, will disintegrate into just another piece of paper.

But those who should be the most worried about such an event occurring, are the ones who continue to commit actions that only make sense if they believe the US long-term situation is a good one. The Chinese government has not ceased their faithful purchasing of US T-Bonds even during the worst period of the Great Recession, and as we veer near a potential double-dip they still haven't stopped. In fact, China has bought over a trillion dollars worth of T-Bonds since they started doing so when our two countries expanded our relationship with one another in the late 20th century.

The only way China can ever expect to see a benefit to their 1.1 trillion dollar investment in the American government is if the United States continues to prosper for decades. Looking at the maturity rate for the bonds they've purchased there's simply no other way around it. Yet despite official criticism regarding the way American lawmakers have been playing with fiscal fire, China has not shown any indication that they've hit the panic button, or that such a button even exists.

China is no stranger to just about anything when it comes to managing the economy of an empire and international relations. The world's leading power does not invest more than a trillion dollars into a military and economic competitor without reinforced assurances that the transaction functions on the terms that were agreed upon.

What does China see, exactly, that makes them so confident? Maybe it's the two trillion dollars of top-level American corporate and private citizen revenue that gets horded inside banks every year instead of being spent like it should. Perhaps it's the countless tax loopholes for big businesses that have yet to be closed, but could be to net more government capital. Or it could just be the fact that as long as the United States continues to possess the world's most powerful and technologically advanced military China feels like they have a reliable business partner under no immediate threat of default.

And even if our government does default on its debt, for some reason China is certain that the US Treasury will always make good on its monthly coupon payments out for bonds. While this is a little scary to think about, it says enormous things about China's confidence in the American public sector to eventually get done what needs to get done.

So long as the private sector of the United States plays along, everything about our current debt crisis is sure to become a thing of the past. China certainly believes so, and with more than 2,000 years of continual existence, you can count on them to always see the bigger picture.