tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post1440859376753948171..comments2023-12-26T01:10:26.319-05:00Comments on Accrued Interest: Annaly doesn't look so bad to me...Accrued Interesthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-73392752033729444032007-08-29T17:04:00.000-05:002007-08-29T17:04:00.000-05:00I have a problem buying the stock of any company t...I have a problem buying the stock of any company that looks like it could be pronounced "anally."<BR/><BR/>Just sayin'...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-90122756495698618832007-08-27T09:11:00.000-05:002007-08-27T09:11:00.000-05:00Smurfy:Off the top of my head, I'd say that NLY is...Smurfy:<BR/><BR/>Off the top of my head, I'd say that NLY is a more direct play on curve shape than a big bank. Now the stock of a small bank might be pretty close. NLY's core strategy is not much different than your classic savings and loan bank.<BR/><BR/>DC:<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the kind words. I'll check out the site.<BR/><BR/>Dave M.:<BR/><BR/>I'd wager that most Fed economists would like to see less regulation of banks, not more. That being said, I think the deal the Fed made with Citi is temporary. The Fed values (correctly) the market maker role that the big brokers play in the bond market.<BR/><BR/>CDS Trader/Anon:<BR/><BR/>Let me be clear that I don't follow NLY professionally, but I do know a lot about how a leveraged MBS portfolio works. So when I say the prospects are good for their portfolio, I mean their portfolio. <BR/><BR/>My quick take on NLY's current stock price is that some level of improvement in dividend is priced in. I'd say that leveraged MBS investors expect something like 9-12% IRRs, so with a dividend yield of ~7%, its clear that current shareholders are expecting some level of improvement. Maybe NLY gets a liquidity premium over a hedge fund, but then again, maybe investors are demanding more yield out of leveraged investments than they used to.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-28254022909307828942007-08-27T08:40:00.000-05:002007-08-27T08:40:00.000-05:00I'm fairly familiar with this stock and wanted to ...I'm fairly familiar with this stock and wanted to make a few points. TDDG's analysis was spot on, in terms of credit and interest rate risk of NLY. However, one should be wary to load up on this stock at this juncture because 1) at the current price, your yield is only 6.7%. They won't pay out 4Q dividend until December so you won't be getting forward dividend guidance until then, plus they are not known to pay special dividend in 4Q, so don't expect the current dividends to be underestimated like some other REITS (e.g. RWT), 2) it is not a sure bet that the Feds will cut rates in September, so if rates remain the same, we can see a return to some liquidity and credit instability, which may affect NLY price like it did a few weeks ago, despite its limited credit risk and 3) this firm is highly levered and despite the fact that 99% of their collateral are highly liquid, changes in repo level (e.g. rates & hair cut) can nonetheless lead to a hit to their equity, very similar to TMA (too a lesser extent). NLY is more of a wait and see stock right now and should be trading sideways for the next few weeks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-91784928141017265732007-08-26T12:09:00.000-05:002007-08-26T12:09:00.000-05:00vrey interesting post. Annaly (NLY) is a stock I'v...vrey interesting post. Annaly (NLY) is a stock I've had an eye on for over a year to buy for my personal portfolio...seems like a very well run company, although obviously has been operating in a tough market this year. I might just pull the trigger this week and buy a little following this post...so if it falls, be warned, i'll be back to complain :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-86287842826535610692007-08-26T09:09:00.000-05:002007-08-26T09:09:00.000-05:00Dear tddg, Investor's Business Daily has reported ...Dear tddg, Investor's Business Daily has reported this...<BR/><BR/>"The market gained momentum in the afternoon amid reports that the Fed eased collateral rules, allowing banks to expand the use of commercial paper when borrowing from the Fed's discount window.""<BR/><BR/>and this...<BR/><BR/>""Also, reports surfaced that the Fed agreed this week to change regulations to assist Citigroup (C) and Bank of America. (BAC) The pair can now lift their lending to their brokerage units.""<BR/><BR/>Uh-oh, red flag time. Are we really, really going to regret the repeal of Glass-Steagal?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-66339156151550260532007-08-25T18:17:00.000-05:002007-08-25T18:17:00.000-05:00I have been searching for and reading various blog...I have been searching for and reading various blogs hoping to find suitable ones to link to in my blog. I especially have come to like yours. I was wondering if you would like to exchange links.<BR/><BR/>Dereck<BR/><BR/>http://thebeststocktradingintheworld.blogspot.com/Anonymous Thinkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05242079219050669099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-45805888579470496552007-08-25T08:47:00.000-05:002007-08-25T08:47:00.000-05:00Are commercial banks also playing the yield curve ...Are commercial banks also playing the yield curve game -- borrowing short term and lending longer term at a higher rate? If so, is a bsaket of commercial bank stocks just as effective of a bet that the yield curve will steepen as Annaly and its peers?<BR/><BR/>Thanks for a great and insightful blog, I check everyday if there updates here.<BR/><BR/><BR/>...SmurfyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-47653925094817272652007-08-25T00:10:00.000-05:002007-08-25T00:10:00.000-05:00I will add haircut, but basically its the amount y...I will add haircut, but basically its the amount you have to put up when you want to leverage a bond. If the haircut is 10%, you get 10% leverage.<BR/><BR/>Dave: Because the yield curve was inverting. Their dividend dropped to like 10c. But now things are improving.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-27642794804949621852007-08-24T23:05:00.000-05:002007-08-24T23:05:00.000-05:00If their core strategy is solid, then I can't help...If their core strategy is solid, then I can't help but wonder why the stock crashed from 20 to 11 in only 4 months in 2005.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-79376286701539209432007-08-24T20:19:00.000-05:002007-08-24T20:19:00.000-05:00A timely post!You may wish to add "haircut" to the...A timely post!<BR/><BR/>You may wish to add "haircut" to the glossary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com