tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post1612568251212663784..comments2023-12-26T01:10:26.319-05:00Comments on Accrued Interest: Non-Residential ABS: No, no problem. Why?Accrued Interesthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-31863965993051016602008-02-27T06:41:00.000-05:002008-02-27T06:41:00.000-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-19278085777681393492008-02-23T03:38:00.000-05:002008-02-23T03:38:00.000-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-53289210599416201342007-10-06T03:24:00.000-05:002007-10-06T03:24:00.000-05:00Well, I definitely agree that "bullish" and "beari...Well, I definitely agree that "bullish" and "bearish" don't convey a lot of information. Touché.<BR/><BR/>I suppose that the question that defeats me is how a country whose citizens are in debt up to their eyeballs and whose jobs are seeping into the setting sun (have seeped?) can prosper.<BR/><BR/>And I guess that even posing that question leads me to a better question: do Americans face a period of rising prices that will make them borrow more.<BR/><BR/>That seems to be the 50th percentile scenario: inflation is a constant element in the economy and consumers borrow more and more to keep up with it.<BR/><BR/>In fact, that is what you were expressing unease about several posts ago when you said you were avoiding CDO's based on consumer debt.<BR/><BR/>So the real question is: how much consumer debt can the "financial industry" handle? And what happens when it can't handle any more?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-88886769108843364412007-10-05T16:31:00.000-05:002007-10-05T16:31:00.000-05:00Well I didn't say anything of the sort did I?What ...Well I didn't say anything of the sort did I?<BR/><BR/>What I said was there is a chance consumers are worse off than I think.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, I won't be painted with the broad brush of "bullish" or "bearish" since the use of those words in the blogosphere differs drastically from their real meaning.<BR/><BR/>If by "bullish" you mean that I expect GDP growth to be tepid, but not negative over the next 4-8 quarters...<BR/><BR/>OR if by "bearish" you mean that I'm concerned about how consumers will adapt to a negative HPA world and realize the possibility that weak consumer spending will drag economic growth more than my baseline assesment... <BR/><BR/>Then either is accurate.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-2179580012408781672007-10-05T14:45:00.000-05:002007-10-05T14:45:00.000-05:00Am I correct is saying that you have enunciated a ...Am I correct is saying that you have enunciated a non-bullish scenario?<BR/><BR/>That you suspect things are worse than they appear?<BR/><BR/>That, in particular, the level of "prosperity" in the United States has been propped up to a <I>dangerous</I> extent by the housing bubble?<BR/><BR/>This is the crux of the matter. This is where the rubber meets the road. This is the essential question. And you seem to be coming down on the bear side.<BR/><BR/>Is that correct.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com