tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post2039743829365186881..comments2023-12-26T01:10:26.319-05:00Comments on Accrued Interest: A New Monoline: Its our only hopeAccrued Interesthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-45796703857254505072008-07-14T22:38:00.000-05:002008-07-14T22:38:00.000-05:00Those monolines never cease to surprise me. Ambac ...Those monolines never cease to surprise me. Ambac just wrapped $250 million-odd in notes for a military housing deal. They're slightly unusual credits, but nothing that I'd imagine an Ambac wrap would be much help with.Gringcorphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09254777209701028458noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-1546265357363314132008-07-14T09:42:00.000-05:002008-07-14T09:42:00.000-05:00I think that monolines will continue to insure abo...I think that monolines will continue to insure about 20% of new issues. We'll see, but that's my view.<BR/><BR/>Still think the odds are long for ABK or MBI.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-81153435195309811342008-07-13T19:44:00.000-05:002008-07-13T19:44:00.000-05:00Will there really be strong demand for bond insura...Will there really be strong demand for bond insurance in the muni market going forward? The rating agencies are moving towards rating munis on a "global scale"--as AC has discussed before--and a lot more of the market will become "natural" triple-A. Not all, but more than now.capitalhillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11773003705359432319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-81523366370487258332008-07-11T11:21:00.000-05:002008-07-11T11:21:00.000-05:00It's possible in theory, but even the slightest cl...It's possible in theory, but even the slightest cloud over the new Connie Lee will create a risk premium for bonds carrying its wrap over what Assured or FSA could offer. There's this assumption that some type of insurer has to emerge from the ashes of MBIA and Ambac. It doesn't. Sure, their downgrades have an outsize importance, but there's no reason why a new player can't just hire management from Ambac and MBIA and get going that way. I bet Macquarie is looking at doing so for the new monoline they're considering. The barriers to entry in the monoline are mostly financial - finding a cheap enough source of capital. Monolines are pretty thinly staffed (remember, Ambac once had the highest profits per head of any US corporation), require no specialised equipment, and a huge amount of their due diligence is outsourced to the ratings agencies. That means the minnows can scale up pretty quickly if the big guys fall down, so long as they don't go chasing after the nasty business as well as the nice stuff.Gringcorphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09254777209701028458noreply@blogger.com