Poole's speech unusually clear...

The Fed's William Poole gave a talk on China today. He said the chance of a rate hike next week is 50/50, which is shockingly blunt for a Fed official. He doesn't have a vote this year, so maybe that affords him a bit more freedom to speak frankly.

Probably the best quote out of it was "science takes just so far." There is no black box. It isn't a big adding machine that spits out the "proper" funds rate. The Fed doesn't know exactly what the impact of hiking or cutting or standing still might be. Sometimes they just take their best guess.