The curve is sharply higher and flatter on today's strong NFP and hourly earnings figures. As I've posted in the past, that tells you the market is pushing back the first Fed cut. A quick look at FF futures shows there is virtually no chance of a Fed cut before April, only a small chance in May, and something like 50/50 for June. This might change a good deal during the day, as its likely to be quite a volatile market today.
I'm curious to see if we test the 4.75% level that we hit at the end of December.
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