tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post2296798493464536302..comments2023-12-26T01:10:26.319-05:00Comments on Accrued Interest: Delinquencies: We can pay you 2,000 now...Accrued Interesthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-47083988408239592452010-03-06T02:05:56.506-05:002010-03-06T02:05:56.506-05:00There is often a service charge involved for the d...There is often a service charge involved for the drafting of cashier's cheques in addition to the amount that the cheque is for, though some banks waive this fee for individuals that hold an account with that bank. for more information about <a href="http://www.chequeloans.org.uk/" rel="nofollow"> Cheque Loans</a><br /><br />visit <br /><a href="http://www.chequeloans.org.uk/" rel="nofollow"> http://www.chequeloans.org.uk/</a>Cheque Loanshttp://www.chequeloans.org.uk/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-59171294709516773482010-03-06T02:01:28.298-05:002010-03-06T02:01:28.298-05:00There is often a service charge involved for the d...There is often a service charge involved for the drafting of cashier's cheques in addition to the amount that the cheque is for, though some banks waive this fee for individuals that hold an account with that bank. for more information about <a href="http://www.chequeloans.org.uk/" rel="nofollow"> Cheque Loans</a><br /><br />visit <br /><a href="http://www.chequeloans.org.uk/" rel="nofollow"> http://www.chequeloans.org.uk/</a>Cheque Loanshttp://www.chequeloans.org.uk/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-20043037877498789342009-10-13T06:13:48.694-05:002009-10-13T06:13:48.694-05:00Thank you for sharing. I'll keep on visiting y...Thank you for sharing. I'll keep on visiting your blog.Best Credit Cardshttp://www.creditagogo.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-73096694193295566022009-10-09T16:46:14.693-05:002009-10-09T16:46:14.693-05:00One thing to keep in mind is that some of the loan...One thing to keep in mind is that some of the loan products haven't hit their reset dates when borrowers actually have to make principal payments (pay-option ARMS generally act as IO loans for the first 5 years after origination; 5/1 IO and 7/1 IO loans were also popular products). These were originated in large numbers starting in early 2005 through early 2007. Consequently, we're likely to see a pickup in dqs as we go through 2010 and 2011, especially since 70-80% of pay-option borrowers only make the minimum payment (which is actually below the IO payment). There are no refi options for most of these loans - they are way underwater due to reduced prop value and, in the case of pay-options, the negative amortization. Also, the on-balance sheet loans of similar product types are unlikely to be performing better than securitized loans for the reasons discussed in the other comments.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-1101059093015220932009-10-07T15:55:43.202-05:002009-10-07T15:55:43.202-05:00Ravi:
If you look at my charts vs. the Feds you&#...Ravi:<br /><br />If you look at my charts vs. the Feds you'll see nothing "suspect." The Fed chart shows about 9% delinquent for residential. I'm showing about 18% for sub-prime and 12% for prime. Now my chart is only the last 12-months, so you don't see this huge ramp-up, but that's just a matter of scaling. <br /><br />Like I said, all I did was focus on 2006-2007 vintages and picked the largest deals. <br /><br />As far as credit cards, all I can tell you is that I'm using the master trust data. There's no sampling.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-43418662516439480692009-10-07T13:00:17.538-05:002009-10-07T13:00:17.538-05:00I appreciate your diligence in trying to stay obje...I appreciate your diligence in trying to stay objective about this issue.<br /><br />Somewhere deep in the bowels of the BofA, WFC, and JPM financial statements there is a lot of shadow inventory of deliquencies and a slew of foreclosures that is not being reported. I am not sure how they do their accounting magic, but I am confident it is there.Lockstephttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18341236022895829445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-69366781708940589642009-10-07T09:10:25.600-05:002009-10-07T09:10:25.600-05:00your methods of calculating delinquency rates appe...your methods of calculating delinquency rates appear suspect. what are you sampling? <br /><br />according the federal reserve, delinquency rates have been surging.<br /><br />http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/fed-delinquency-rates-surged-in-q2-2009.htmlUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08714303094136758833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-76603960727769092622009-10-07T07:25:07.189-05:002009-10-07T07:25:07.189-05:00@ Mike
"Most likely securitized loans are so...@ Mike<br /><br />"Most likely securitized loans are somewhat worse than loans held on balance sheet by the same bank. "<br /><br />This really depends on the "bank". Many small community and regional banks would not make a loan unless it could sell it. If they had a questionable loan, they would determine it they could sell it or securitize it. If they couldn't they'd never make the loan. <br /><br />Of course, this wasn't true of the large aggregating banks like WAMU, but it was certainly true for many small community and regional banks.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-89577425160686883302009-10-06T23:27:46.550-05:002009-10-06T23:27:46.550-05:00One issue with using unemployment is a proxy to an...One issue with using unemployment is a proxy to anything is an underlying assumption that job losses are spread evenly. Where my intuition tells me that we might have lost 5% of the employment base, but much less so in terms of salaried Income, i.e. there majority of the losses, especially more recently were jobs paying below the avg pay.HawkFollowerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00062369964091521790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-61805729601526606862009-10-06T19:59:37.467-05:002009-10-06T19:59:37.467-05:00"Most likely securitized loans are somewhat w..."Most likely securitized loans are somewhat worse than loans held on balance sheet by the same bank. "<br /><br />Unless you are talking about new loans made with "corrected" underwriting standards, this is not so. What remained on the balance sheet were the loans which were kicked out the deal by ratings agencies (because including it would have reduced diversity), special servicers (specific to CMBS) and the GSEs who were targeted to buy a specific bond. Underwriters employed entire teams to filter out loans so that the pool would look good to the ratings agency models.crabsofsteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13395961726023130183noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-38742744467180700262009-10-06T19:10:26.832-05:002009-10-06T19:10:26.832-05:00"But I suspect that losses related to bad len..."But I suspect that losses related to bad lending will dwarf those from this second wave of delinquencies related to unemployment."<br /><br />I totally agree with the statement above. There's two distinct concepts at play: one is delinquencies and other other is loan loss. A delinquency doesn't necessary lead to a loan loss. Conceptually, the LTV must be than 100% for a loan loss to occur. <br /><br />A delinquency related to an unemployment trigger - can occur in a housing area with a low decline in real estate values and/or on a seasoned loan with a low LTV. In both cases, there's equity remaining. The loan can be restructured/modified or even the house could be sold, and no loan loss is incurred by the lender.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-64765384906374892182009-10-06T11:54:21.138-05:002009-10-06T11:54:21.138-05:00Try it now. Should be able to click the picture an...Try it now. Should be able to click the picture and see a much larger image.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-40079315762782637802009-10-06T10:18:40.093-05:002009-10-06T10:18:40.093-05:00No argument with your methods or points, but could...No argument with your methods or points, but could you post your graphs as larger images?<br /><br />You could keep the smaller ones inline, with a link to larger ones. I'm not intending to use them for anything, just like to see the graphs clearly.<br /><br />Thanks.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05887180822623663377noreply@blogger.com