tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post390573406140588734..comments2023-12-26T01:10:26.319-05:00Comments on Accrued Interest: Dan Green understands...Accrued Interesthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-88741740090108572942007-03-27T20:00:00.000-05:002007-03-27T20:00:00.000-05:00Thanks for going on easy on me.Yeah, the revisions...Thanks for going on easy on me.<BR/><BR/>Yeah, the revisions are where the truth lies, but I don't think any of the federal agencies or NAR wants to embargo data for 12 months while they figure out the "real" results.<BR/><BR/>Heh. "Truth" and "lies" next to each other looks funny...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-78116951266450301982007-03-27T12:00:00.000-05:002007-03-27T12:00:00.000-05:00Yeah. A commenter on his blog made that point so I...Yeah. A commenter on his blog made that point so I didn't want to pile on. <BR/><BR/>I look at it less from the "margin of error," because that number is based on an assumption of standard deviation. But what's the proper standard deviation? Is it 3 years? All time? <BR/><BR/>I look more at the revisions. That is the "real" error if you will. If the revisions are consistently large, then you know that a given number is indicative, but not a trend.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-22065719263508619002007-03-27T11:40:00.000-05:002007-03-27T11:40:00.000-05:00The article made a good point, but he also muddles...The article made a good point, but he also muddles the issue on another point.<BR/><BR/>No matter what the margin of error, the expected value is still the expected value.<BR/><BR/>And the margin of error is dependent of the degree of confidence one requires. So although I cannot be 95% certain that 9% construction is different from zero, I can probably be 90% certain (depending obviously on the stdev numbers). That's not too bad.Vivek Vishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13124484091954414724noreply@blogger.com