tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post6292042160631038464..comments2023-12-26T01:10:26.319-05:00Comments on Accrued Interest: I felt it tooAccrued Interesthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-88028945385332937332008-01-11T13:37:00.000-05:002008-01-11T13:37:00.000-05:00Bernanke's seminal (you should excuse the expressi...Bernanke's seminal (you should excuse the expression) article on the Great Depression, which is definitely worth a read and which I will try to find the URL for, states clearly that the Depression occurred because central banks kept money tight too long.<BR/><BR/>It's kind of like jibing and holding on to the mainsheet for all you're worth...the darn boat tips over.<BR/><BR/>He also points out that the Depression was far worse in France, for example, where money was kept tighter longer.<BR/><BR/>Well, history seems to be repeating itself. The ECB, in the face of whatever is happening in the world, is keeping money tight. Yes, they are pumping money in targeted ways, but the big rate is steady.<BR/><BR/>Does that mean we should all invest in euros and buy the first born of desperate Europeans when things turn really sour.<BR/><BR/>Oh, and by the way, the market's down today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-80392967097559982852008-01-11T13:11:00.000-05:002008-01-11T13:11:00.000-05:00I was using the Lehman Credit OAS, which is LUCROA...I was using the Lehman Credit OAS, which is LUCROAS on Bloomberg.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-38492116876814582402008-01-11T12:12:00.000-05:002008-01-11T12:12:00.000-05:00hi, in comparing spreads re: last recessions, whic...hi, in comparing spreads re: last recessions, which index do you use?<BR/><BR/>Thanks<BR/>FreAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-8185834319960382082008-01-10T21:14:00.000-05:002008-01-10T21:14:00.000-05:00The FED hit the panic button. $6b in 1 day repos, ...The FED hit the panic button. $6b in 1 day repos, $9b in 7 day repos, & $9b in 14 day repos. It is now officially pursuing an "easy" or less restrictive monetary policy.<BR/><BR/>As before: Stocks rise when the rate-of-change in the money supply exceeds or increases versus the rate-of-change in inflation. The other requirement is that money & credit growth are not so excessive that prices rise above the FOMC’s inflation target. The concept is dubbed “real-money” and it’s supposed to follow real-gdp. <BR/><BR/>Currently most private economists are forecasting slower economic growth. And under Bernanke’s leadership, the FOMC’s forecasts have been reasonably accurate. So the conclusion would be that any “easing” by the Fed (to counter recessionary tendencies)would translate into higher stock prices, ceteris paribus. <BR/><BR/>That's the impetus behind the last 2 days rally.flow5https://www.blogger.com/profile/10233035883019771736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-59274395815069681632008-01-10T07:50:00.000-05:002008-01-10T07:50:00.000-05:00"Corporate bond spreads are as wide or wider than ...<I>"Corporate bond spreads are as wide or wider than the last 2 recessions"[AI]</I><BR/>Thanks, that is very helpful and the data are not readily accessible to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com