tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post7233510992979380929..comments2023-12-26T01:10:26.319-05:00Comments on Accrued Interest: Home Prices: A little higher! A little higher!Accrued Interesthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-20516812827667992582009-09-29T14:17:06.452-05:002009-09-29T14:17:06.452-05:00According to me Home Prices are bound to decline a...According to me Home Prices are bound to decline and hopefully they will follow the same trend till the world economy stabilizes. As per experts this could happen only by end of this year of mid of next year.Highest CD Rateshttp://www.higestcdratesinfo.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-24800568774469758712009-04-30T13:44:00.000-05:002009-04-30T13:44:00.000-05:00Lineup:
I don't agree that the median home owner ...Lineup:<br /><br />I don't agree that the median home owner can't afford his mortgage (if that's what you mean). I certainly agree than <I>many</I> home owners can't afford their homes, but what's the long-term solution? Foreclose on those homes and get them into stronger hands. <br /><br />That's why I say that an elevated level of transactions indicates progress. Now I can't say that we're there yet, because the level of existing home transations is a solid 20% lower than was typical before the bubble, and home inventories remain too high. So this isn't mission accomplished. I'm merely saying that if we start seeing existing home sales rise consistently, I'd be feeling more bullish, and it really wouldn't matter to me what Case Shiller says. Make sense?Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-54605392213754397312009-04-29T20:47:00.000-05:002009-04-29T20:47:00.000-05:00The heart of the housing problem was and is a larg...The heart of the housing problem was and is a large expansion of credit. Fed flow of funds shows about 5 trillion in mortgage debt in the early decade that has risen to over 12 trillion today. <br />The problem is that Americans own mortgages not houses and cannot adequately service the 12 +trillion mortgage debt. <br />A bottom relative to transaction levels doesn't resolve the underlying issue which is how the average family will make those mortgage payments and still have enough income to participate in the overall economy.lineup32https://www.blogger.com/profile/01645284557123359301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-27115937255560882482009-04-29T11:50:00.000-05:002009-04-29T11:50:00.000-05:00Lock: I'm not saying things are getting good in ho...Lock: I'm not saying things are getting <I>good</I> in housing. I think we have another year of extremely high foreclosures ahead of us, then another 2-3 years of elevated foreclosures. <br /><br />I'm just saying that if we see a trend of increasing existing sales, that's a much better indicator of a bottom than the actual price indices.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-33664196118564070682009-04-29T10:28:00.000-05:002009-04-29T10:28:00.000-05:00I have to disagree with you on this one. Fannie, ...I have to disagree with you on this one. Fannie, Freddie, JPM, C, BAC all just finished a foreclosure moratorium and have now resumed a more rapid pace of foreclosure. Mish Shedlock posted a graph showing a huge spike in notice of defaults in March in correspondence with this event. Fannie and Freddie data is still months away, but there is still a huge shadow inventory still waiting to be moved. Give it another 12 months of smooth downside, and then start looking at homebuilder confidence.Lockstephttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18341236022895829445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-24614249163736763202009-04-29T09:04:00.000-05:002009-04-29T09:04:00.000-05:00That makes sense, thanks for the clarification.That makes sense, thanks for the clarification.Kyle Fhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13053986491552183727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-76916343367085690542009-04-29T06:33:00.000-05:002009-04-29T06:33:00.000-05:00K: Yes, but also that a higher level of transactio...K: Yes, but also that a higher level of transactions indicate that demand is actually reacting to lower prices. Lower prices without activity suggests price discovery. Think about the market for stuff like CDO^2. The marks were going persistantly lower as far back as mid-07. But there were no trades, so you couldn't say it had bottomed. The lower offer price wasn't being met with a bid.<br /><br />Jake: I am going to be long DMM in some fashion.Accrued Interesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05096191765979971184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-41561415709722412872009-04-29T06:25:00.000-05:002009-04-29T06:25:00.000-05:00I am interested to see how the new Macroshare base...I am interested to see how the new Macroshare based on the Case-Shiller will trade. DMM housing down, UMM housing up... Any thoughts?Jakedeezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07435828557670647528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-64531636098233226002009-04-28T21:41:00.000-05:002009-04-28T21:41:00.000-05:00I don't follow, what is making you put more weight...I don't follow, what is making you put more weight on Existing Home Sales and NAHB Confidence Surveys with respect to C-S? Because they have less lag?Kyle Fhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13053986491552183727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30643134.post-49072656759727373442009-04-28T14:44:00.000-05:002009-04-28T14:44:00.000-05:00One thing to point out is that the slowing rate of...One thing to point out is that the slowing rate of price decline will be more a function of the defaults moving out of subprime and into the higher priced neighborhoods. The losses to mortgages will continue, and the banks who have not marked them down to date are going to be posting large losses.<br /><br />For more detailed information of how the composition and timing of NODs and foreclosures is changing, check out the blog at<br />http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/pwm76https://www.blogger.com/profile/06360404038525306119noreply@blogger.com