Thursday, September 28, 2006

AAA idea, CCC results

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One of the reasons why I started this blog was because there are a lot of issues relating to the bond market that don’t get much attention f...
Wednesday, September 27, 2006

So much for that...

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OK, merely hours ago, I claimed that intra-day buying would gain momentum. Based on that, you would have gone long the bond market early tod...

Durable goods, non-durable orders

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So last week I was skeptical about the Philly Fed survey, as it seemed like an outlier. I thought yesterday’s Richmond Fed survey backed up...
Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Gone Fisher-ing in Mexico

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FRB of Dallas president Richard Fisher tried really really hard to explain to the world that inflation is still a problem in a speech he gav...
Monday, September 25, 2006

Bond Traders Lose $1 Billion?

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In a classic example of a headline that means less than it sounds, this from Bloomberg News: Bond Traders Lost $1 Billion From Trace, Study ...
Friday, September 22, 2006

The big mo'

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It looks like Europe and Asian investors are capitulating as well, as the bond market has rallied another 1/4 point overnight. I don't t...
Thursday, September 21, 2006

Filthy

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The bulls are charging in the Treasury market after the Philly Fed index gave its worst showing in 3+ years. I rarely post graphs of histor...

Fed's a snore, market is a bore

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Its been a long time since a Fed announcement day has left us with so little to talk about. Basically, the situation is exactly the same as ...
Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Lawyers vs. Detectives

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A lawyer's job is to argue a position, regardless of what s/he actually believes. If a lawyer is defending an accused criminal, his/her ...
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Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Attention passengers: All U.S. Treasury flights to quality have been canceled

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In 2002, news of a coup in Thailand would have put a serious bid into the Treasury market. Traders would have called it a "flight to qu...
Monday, September 18, 2006

First Ever Accrued Interest Blog Roll

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Two very good blog posts today that I'll link here with minimal comment: Capital Spectator has my back on the view that inflation is al...

Sea of liquidity recedes just a bit...

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Foreigners bought about $33 billion in U.S. securities in July, down from $75 billion in June. The bond market is off about 3/8 on the news....

Blaming the system

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The Bush Administration has backed off an ambitious plan to change the fundamental nature of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and now seems to be...
Friday, September 15, 2006

Caroline Baum misses the inflation target

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Caroline Baum's piece on Bloomberg News today ( U.S. Inflation Measure May Be Rotten at the Core ) a deep misunderstanding of what infla...

Is the United States of America Bankrupt?

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I'm finally getting around to reading the July/August issue of the FRB of St. Louis' Review publication. If you don't subscribe...

CPI in line, bit of a relief rally...

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CPI came in right where the Bloomberg consensus was: 0.2% MoM, 3.8% YoY. The bond market is rallying a bit on the news, probably more of a r...
Thursday, September 14, 2006

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Price action on the 10-year has been odd today. Before the 8:30 numbers, the 10-year was at 101-1, up 6 ticks or so. After the number, and I...
Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Energy prices: inflation or growth pressure?

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Do rising energy prices cause inflation or do they weigh on growth? This debate has been raging for most of the last 2 years, as oil prices ...
Monday, September 11, 2006

What's the best inflation measure? Depends on who's asking.

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I'm back from a brief hiatus. Our office has moved, and it hasn't left much time for blogging. Now everything is in place, and its b...
Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Mail Time!

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Reader Steve Feiss wrote a long and thoughtful comment the other day, which I thought deserved its own post. I can tell Steve is a bond guy...
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