Friday, February 13, 2009

The bubble in TBT

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Just a few weeks ago, a number of commentators were calling the Treasury bond market a bubble . The 10-year Treasury had fallen to nearly 2....
29 comments:
Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Clumsy and Random Thoughts

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Just as Geithner is about to speak... They want to call the Bad Bank an "Aggregator" bank. Does that mean we can call it "Agg...
4 comments:
Monday, February 09, 2009

TARP II: Find a way into the detention block!

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Details are emerging about the new financial rescue package. Some of the items the Wall Street Journal has reported sound far more market-f...
10 comments:

TIPS: What know you of ready?

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I recommended TIPs vs. nominal bonds in an earlier article . Since that time, the 10-year Treasury is down 4%, while the 10-year TIP is slig...
3 comments:
Friday, February 06, 2009

I'm back

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AI returns after a nearly 2-week hiatus. Well, semi-hiatus as I was traveling and not able to write much. If you've e-mailed me and I ha...
5 comments:
Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Bad Bank/Worse Bank

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So what do we think of Geithner's Bad Bank idea? Is this the solution that will finally fix the economy? Will this mark a Bottom (tm)? ...
11 comments:
Wednesday, January 28, 2009

2009 Forecast: Corporates -- Carrie!!

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Seems like every one who comes on to CNBC to talk about the bond market these days talks about what incredible opportunities there are i...
9 comments:
Friday, January 16, 2009

Citigroup: Ward of the State

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Remember when Obi Wan Kenobi lept up from that bottomless pit on Naboo and sliced Darth Maul in half? That's what comes to mind when I t...
16 comments:

Follow-up on MBS

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I got several reader e-mails (accruedint *AT* gmail.com) asking questions about my MBS analysis . Here is a quick and dirty... That's th...
3 comments:

Bank of America... Literally

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Some clumsy and random thoughts on Bank of America... Its been floated around that the government cut some sort of deal with BofA to buy Mer...
6 comments:
Thursday, January 15, 2009

2009 Forecast: Agencies and MBS -- Back door huh?

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For the rest of the 2009 Forecast series, click here. I lump agency debt and MBS together because both are basically wards of the state at t...
8 comments:

Clumsy and Random Thoughts

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Bank of America is getting Treasury help to ensure finalization of Merrill Lynch deal. This really proves that the administration regrets le...
2 comments:
Monday, January 12, 2009

Citigroup: Now the bank is all but extinct

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Selling 51% of Smith Barney only makes sense if Citigroup is going to sell 100% of Citibank (i.e., the rest of the firm) as well. We know, o...
5 comments:

Time for Tips

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Deflation is the new buzzword, especially now that the Consumer Price Index has declined or remained flat four months in a row. But that bei...
12 comments:
Friday, January 09, 2009

2009 Forecast Episode II: Deflation Strikes Back

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This is Part II of a indeterminate series on the Accrued Interest 2009 Forecast . Here I'll focus on general interest rates and Treasury...
18 comments:
Friday, January 02, 2009

2009 Forecast: That bad huh?

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For most of my career, with an exception here and there, there have been two persistent trends. One is that in the debt markets, the fundame...
19 comments:

Municipals Bond Defaults: Oh, switch off!

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Let's compare two companies, thinking in terms of credit-worthiness. Note that on May 1, 2008, credit-default swaps (CDS) on both compa...
18 comments:
Monday, December 29, 2008

Bad liquidity cuts both ways in municipals

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Municipal bonds have posed an impressive rally in the last few days: the Barclays Municipal Index is up 3.78% since 12/15. That is better th...
12 comments:
Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Mark-to-Market: Discussion minus the Zealotry

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Mark-to-market accounting has got to be one of the most controversial topics of the year. Unfortunately, its also rife with bias and downrig...
23 comments:
Friday, December 19, 2008

TALF: Quicker, easier, more seductive

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The Fed has expanded the Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility (TALF), which AI first discussed here . Here is the quick recap of the facility. 1...
4 comments: