Friday, January 08, 2010

2010 Forecast: No, no different

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Is it really different this time? In other words, is this recession really different from past recessions? I argue only in terms of magnitud...
24 comments:
Wednesday, December 30, 2009

2010 Forecast: How's the gas mine? Is it paying off for you?

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Well, its forecast time. I'm going to do this over the course of four posts, I think. Maybe more. This first post is going to focus on w...
16 comments:
Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Debt Wars Episode II: Attack of the Traders

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My post from last week on debt generated some conversation about leverage and the value of arbitrage-free prices. Basically I'm arguing...
16 comments:
Thursday, December 10, 2009

Debt: How am I to know the good side from the bad?

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I was listening to Megan McArdle on the EconTalk podcast the other day. (By the way, I recommend the EconTalk series for any real economic...
22 comments:
Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Bernanke: She lied to us! Terminate her immediately!

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Ben Bernanke told us yesterday that inflation "could move lower from here," obviously suggesting that any Fed tightening is a lon...
8 comments:
Friday, December 04, 2009

Don't get technical with me! 12/4/2009

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Well! -11,000? I didn't see that coming. And I think its a game changer. There is no way the Fed can keep rates at zero while unemployme...
6 comments:
Thursday, December 03, 2009

I told you it would work!

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I've said it before and gotten all sorts of criticism, but the simple fact is that the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program, a.k.a. th...
6 comments:
Thursday, November 19, 2009

Taylor Rule: There's nothing for me here now

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We've been talking a lot about the Fed lately so I thought I'd share my version of the Taylor Rule calculation. I've built thi...
14 comments:
Monday, November 16, 2009

I warn you not to underestimate my power

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A warning to all you exposed to the dollar carry trade, either directly or indirectly. A group which includes: Anyone borrowing in USD to bu...
12 comments:
Friday, November 13, 2009

Don't get technical with me! 11/13/09

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Yesterday's long bond auction was very interesting. I had been bearish going into it, went long some TBT, was feeling very good about my...
3 comments:
Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Fed on Employment: Well, forget the heavy equipment

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The other day I speculated that the Fed was paying less attention to employment than most marketeers seem to think. Specifically, I question...
14 comments:
Monday, November 09, 2009

Clumsy and Random Thoughts 11/9/2009

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I know I didn't post a technical piece on Friday. I've been looking at the charts in my normal course of business and can't find...
9 comments:
Friday, November 06, 2009

Fed Rate Hikes: Your employment statistics. You will not need them.

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On Wednesday I posted a poll on when the Fed would make its first hike. So far about half of the responses have been "After September ...
6 comments:
Wednesday, November 04, 2009

New Polls: Sounds like a dictatorship

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I posted two new polls. One serious, one not so serious. We got horrible turnout on the last poll (Q: Best quote for the current stock marke...
18 comments:
Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Financial Regulation: How would you have it work?

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Yesterday myself and several other financial bloggers got the chance to meet with several senior Treasury officials, including the Secretary...
38 comments:
Friday, October 30, 2009

Don't get technical with me! 10/30/09

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I think whenever we are using technical analysis, we have to remember why it might work. Charts and patterns aren't some mystical energ...
14 comments:
Thursday, October 29, 2009

Look, I had everything under control until you lead us down here!

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Credit trading got very ugly late last night. Sellers were showing up in force, buyers were all but extinct, the street was taking its rewar...
2 comments:
Wednesday, October 28, 2009

A useless gesture, no matter what technical data they've obtained!

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In my last 10-year trading post , I wrote that while momentum was negative for Treasury prices, we were sitting on a key support level, leav...
3 comments:
Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Too Big to Fail: Cut the chatter Red Two!

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Yesterday's report on CNBC is that Congress is nearing a bill on new financial regulations aimed at the Too Big to Fail problem. The det...
4 comments:
Monday, October 26, 2009

Bonds and the U.S. Dollar: Use the commlink? Oh. I forgot. I turned it off.

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Call me a sucker for the classics. Be it the original trilogy, the old Kenner figures, the "Nyub Nyub" song at the end of Jedi, or...
12 comments: