Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Fog of War

On a day like yesterday, where a given corporate should be priced is tough to say. The market tends to lock up, and bids can be hard to come by. Everything is offered. Especially today one doesn't have to sell a bond to get flat on the credit. Just buy protection in the CDS market. The story from Wall Street's bond desks was that they couldn't sell protection fast enough, and that all Treasury offers were lifted.

Anyway, here are some heavily traded names and where it looks like they've ended up. This is based entirely on the best information I can find, so take it as a "best guess" only. (The + number after the quote is how much wider on the day.)

VZ '16 91/88, +10
DT '16 114/111, +4
RESCAP '15 197/192+18
CMCSA '17 111/106 +9
TWX '16 105/100 +9
CFC '16 143/138 +18
BSC '17 103/100 +10
GS '17 108/105 +7
HSBC '16 82/79 +6
MER '16 100/97 +8
C '17 80/77 +5
WM '17 111/106 +8

GMAC '31 $109.375/109.875 -1 point
F '31 $79.25/80.125 -1.75 points

CDX7 36.5 +6 (high-grade CDS, 6bps on an index @30... think about that for a minute!!)
HVOL7 86 +15 (high volume CDS, trying to find out if that's the biggest 1d move ever)
BB7 170 +25 (BB rated CDS)

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