Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Help Wanted: Ability to interpret the ADP survey a must

The ADP payroll survey was released this morning -- +78,000. The survey for Friday's non-farm payroll report is +120,000, so if the ADP survey were accurate (don't laugh), that would be a fair sized miss.

The market is up moderately -- 10yr +5 ticks. I think the ADP survey is worth paying attention to, despite its recent inaccuracies. However, I'm not sure whether +78,000 or +120,000 is the real key to what direction the Fed moves next. I'm paying attention to inflation figures first, consumer spending second, commercial activity third, and employment fourth. So if you put a gun to my head, I'd say whatever direction the market moves after the NFP number, I'd fade it.

1 comment:

Uncle Jack said...

Read this, "I expect that September payroll figures could be as low as 70,000 (against a consensus of 128,000) as the housing and housing related sectors will start to take a toll on employment."

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/149859

This was posted by Nouriel Roubini two days ago.