I've added a poll on what the Fed will do on 10/31 (right hand side under the Google ad). I'm curious as our collective opinion. I consider it your blog reader duty to vote.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
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We used to have fun commenting about the bond market, including Treasuries, Mortgages, Municipals, and Corporates. But that was before the dark times. Before deleveraging. Contact the Author: accruedint at gmail.com
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11 comments:
They cut 25bp's and announce that they hold FF at 4.50% and Discount Rate at 5%
no change, saying we ain't Wall street's bitch!
Northern Rock's last ditch bond bailout failed. No takers. Cerberus is planning to take it private and butcher it into pieces to keep the mark-to-market CDO truth concealed.
http://i20.tinypic.com/2wlwo5u.gif
China market up 2.5%. Gold up 4%.
Predictions?
***Fed will keep treading water at 4.75% to keep from cracking CPI and resetting entitlement COLA's for 2008.***
The dead cat bounce will fail, bad.
Israel will attack Iran on Eid al-Fitr, before the next full
moon brings a Dio de la Muerte.
Hillary's head will explode trying to realign her frayed base.
Just sayin'....
they will probably cut 25bps but hopefully will either hold firm or put the rate back where it was.
the EUR has gained 12% since last year and 4.6% in just the last month! inflation is out of control.
I'm not appraised of Bernanke's "policy rule" & other inputs, but I'm very encouraged by Bernanke's actions. He's been very responsive to the capital markets.
That is, the Manager of the Open Market Account, through the Open Market Device, smooths out the day-to-day fluctuations in the volume of excess bank reserves deemed appropriate by the authorities. The emergency injection of excess reserves pumped into the system because of the beginning of the liquidity crunch in the capital markets on Sept. 18th was temporary.
The need for "support" operations now seems to have passed, & judging from the level of non-borrowed reserves, the "trading" desk now appears to have "washed out" excess reserves & has shifted back to it's "tight" monetary policy.
There will be another major bank failure and with Russia's banking system under pressure will force a 50FF and BP cut. But I'm optimistic about the credit crunch.
Bearspanky is determined to save the economy and his pigmen friends. 50 bps cut is in the bag.
Bank failures are a somewhat novel event on the financial pages, and now we have two of them.
Bernanke's first responsibility is the banking system. If it is okay, he will stand pat.
If not, he will cut further.
I don't think American equities are a good investment at a time when the dollar is being abandoned. Whatever Bernanke does, equities are [rhymes with plucked].
This is blatantly irresponsible and fraudulent.. I fervently hope Bernanke and Paulson are both fired as soon as possible. Of course, that won't happen -- it's just random coincidence that the place Paulson used to work was the one I-bank which made money off the current situation. Yep, nothing to see here at all.
Bernanke, of course, can't "be fired." I think they'll hold the rates steady or increase them 25BP. There really isn't too much that he/they can do to provide an impetus to the economy right now. Congress has bunged up the CPI by providing massive subsidies to ethanol, exacerbating food and beer prices (bastards! for beer, anyway). This system isn't one that can be controlled by one tentacle...they all have to have the same goal in mind, even if they are supposedly independent and nonpartisan.
skh.pcola
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