Every one is going to be doing these "One Year Later" pieces. I'm not going to give you a retrospective on what the government could have done. I've made my position well known. I'm also not so arrogant as to claim that I know how much things would have been different. If we had bailed out Lehman, then would we have bailed out Wachovia? Or AIG? Would Wachovia have failed if not for Lehman? What about WaMu? Or Merrill? If Lehman had managed to survive, could Merrill (Or Morgan Stanley, or anyone else) have been the one to trip us into the crisis? Who knows. Its entirely speculative. The only thing that's inside that cave is what you bring with you.
I do think its very interesting to consider how much things have changed, or not, since last September. So I'd like to begin a discussion on what's better, worse, or no different since before the Fannie/Freddie bailout on September 7. I'm going to start with a few points, and wait for others to come in via comments or e-mail (accruedint at gmail.com). In each case, I want one or two sentences (per point) as well as numerical evidence to back you up.
Here are a few:
- US GDP 2Q 2008: +1.5%. 2Q 2009: -1.0%
- Consumer credit: 8/31/08: $2,576 billion, 7/31/09: $2,472 billion (-4%)
- Goldman Sachs 5yr CDS: 9/5/08 +160, now +120
- Home Equity Loan ABS issuance: 2008: $4 billion. YTD 2009: $0
- CMBS issuance: 2008: $27 billion, YTD 2009: $0
- Fannie Mae 30-year commitment rate: 9/5/08 5.887%, now 4.692%
- Bank's loss reserve as pct of total loans and leases: 2Q 2008: 1.81%, 2Q 2009: 2.77% (from FDIC quarterly banking profile)
- Bank's equity capital as pct of total assets: 2Q 2008: 10.16%. 2Q 2009: 10.69%.
So there are just a few to get us started. I'll continue to post additional ideas of both my own and others as the week progresses. Thanks in advance for your comments.