Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Well, don't get all mushy on me. So long, Princess.

This may not come as a surprise to many of you since I haven't written anything in a month, but this will be my last post on Accrued Interest.

The reasons why I'm shutting it down are several. First, I have taken a much more expanded role at TheStreet.com. This is taking up some of the time and mental energy I had been using on Accrued Interest. Second, I will be starting a completely new professional endeavour within my firm. I expect this to take up vast amounts of my time in the next couple years.

The bottom line is that I don't want to be doing anything that doesn't live up to my own standards of quality. I have come to the conclusion that if I kept this blog going I'd only be writing once a week, if that, and I'm not sure the quality of even infrequent posts would be at the level I've achieved in the past.

I'd like to thank every one who ever read the blog, particularly those that I've corresponded with and gotten to know a bit. The blog covered one of the most wild times in my career, where at times I wasn't sure what the finance world would look like. I was very glad to have the outlet to express my thoughts on the direction banking and finance should take, even getting invited to the Treasury Department to discuss it with people who were shaping that direction.

I was also humbled by the level of discourse that often accompanied my own posts. While I think I'm a pretty smart guy and a half-way decent writer, nothing pleased me more than that the blog attracted people who were just as intelligent and well-spoken and who were willing to marshall a logical argument. If I could change one thing about the world, it would be to temper the hyperbole-laden and sound byte driven debate that persists in this world. To get to a place where a guy like Russ Roberts gets more attention than a guy like Marc Faber. A world where people are willing to acknowledge the opposition's argument and where we're open minded to new evidence that contrasts our own thinking. Instead we live in a world of instant analysis and where fame is equated with legitimacy.

If you'd like to keep in touch with me, please e-mail me sometime in the next few weeks and I'll give you a new e-mail address to use. After about a month I'll stop checking the accruedint e-mail.

Thanks again to all those that have supported the blog over the years.

Oh, and I just can't resist. One last surge of Star Wars geekery.


"Master Yoda, you can't die."

"Strong am I with the Force, but not that strong."

"Guards, leave us."

"Afraid I was going to leave without giving you a goodbye kiss?"

"So...you got your reward and you're just leaving then?"

"All right. Well, take care of yourself, Han. I guess that's what you're best at, isn't it?"

"What are you looking at? I know what I'm doing."

"I can't believe he's gone."

54 comments:

BullandBearWise said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
BullandBearWise said...

First Across the Curve folds, now you. Coincidence? Mmmm. I suspect the entire bond world is on the brink of getting turned upside down.

The Epicurean Dealmaker said...

"Adios muchachos, companeros ..."

Vaya con Dios, my friend. Best of luck with the new gigs.

Josh Kalish said...

Good luck, I've enjoyed reading your posts.

Greg said...

Any good replacements for bond blogs?

Highgamma said...

Good-bye and good luck with your ventures.

Tom Lindmark said...

Thanks for the frequent doses of sanity during an insane period. I'll miss your logic.

Aaron said...

Thanks for your posts -- Have been extremely helpful and thought provoking. You sure you dont want to keep posting?

Burak T said...

I'm hoping for a Brett Favresque comeback but still, Good luck Accrued! Your readers will miss you..

John (Ad Orientem) said...

Sorry to see you go. Best wishes in your new endeavors.

John

Anonymous said...

I am a college student majoring in finance. I started reading your blog a year ago and I can't adequately describe how much your writings have taught me and prepared me for the profession.

I came to your blog by coincidence: I thought "bonds and stuff" sounded so cool, and felt I needed to become intelligent on this topic. Accrued Interest totally accomplished that for me.

Thank you again and I will miss your witty analysis!

David Merkel said...

AI -- I have the highest respect for you, and I understand why you are doing this. Good for you, but let's have lunch sometime in spring. Hopefully the four feet of snow will be gone by then. ;)

PS -- though I cover bonds irregularly, who will do it now that you and John Jansen are gone. Wait, think about it, two of the Treasury eight are no longer blogging. Of the eight, I'm the only bond guy left blogging.

My best wishes to you. You know where I live.

David said...

Thank you for your bonds musings and Star Warian allusions. Your writing and content have been thoroughly enjoyable. In looking back on the events of the past few years your blog will be memorable. Best of luck in your new venture. Hopefully we will continue to see your writings somewhere in the future.

Anonymous said...

Ave atque vale, sir.

HawkFollower said...

Huge loss to the blogosphere. Really enjoyed every single post.

Can you elaborate on that thestreet.com involvement?

Jake said...

Congrats on the new opportunities, but your musing will be missed!

Best of luck.

-Jake

daveinsv said...

thank you for the past couple (?) of years of posting, it was well worth the read. Good luck going forward. Dave

A. said...

Pity to see you go. All the best.

getyourselfconnected said...

I am sure you will do very well! Best wishes!

As an aside, now I am free to name my posts with Star Wars quotes, so I have that going for me, which is nice.

GS751 said...

I am another college student and am really sad to see your blog shutting down but at the same time best of luck with your future endeavors.

GreenAB said...

thank you for your outstanding work and good luck in the future!

though i did not agree with everything you brought completely new perspectives to mind.

atc, credit trader, bond tangent gone and now you.
very very sad day for the non stock investor.

it´s even more bad when bonds as an asset class finally have gotten the respect they deserve.

where exactly can i read you on thestreet.com?

Value of Everything said...

Hey, how about at least a link. Can't find anything resembling you on TheStreet.com (could just be poor web design). But maybe you just don't want anyone reading your stuff anymore. Who know?

Matt Johnson said...

i've just started a blog - two posts in, and i'm feeling the weight.

my second post is on the probability of an EU double dip, greece getting cut again due to bad GDP numbers, and the trouble in dubai

http://ricardianambivalence.wordpress.com/

Anonymous said...

Another reader here commenting on how much your blog meant to me in terms of sane discourse, well vetted argument and pointed discussion.
I would read your POV on the bond market to round out my POV on the equities, treasury, and world markets.
Really gonna miss the education you provided for FREE here...although I saw that paid subscribers could also get it if they paid for it at TheStreet.com

eh said...

Thanks for all the insight. Best.

1090rule said...

As a fellow bondy, will be sad to lose your insights.
Well done

Anonymous said...

Quite a loss. There's almost no coverage of bonds in the media easily accessed by regular investors.

Bond news in the media needs to be well beyond just the rate curves and a most active list. That is like having stock news consist only of most actives and ipo information.

Doug said...

Aw c'mon guys, it's not like he's dead. This is way too depressing.

LIQUID MAN said...

you were one of the best.

ремонт пластиковых окон said...

Thanks for work!!!

DCRogers said...

Thanks for your work -- I learned a lot here!

Michael Krause said...

Not to be a vulture on the remains, but maybe some you guys can come on over to bondtraderforum.com ... I started it about a year ago, and like all things bond related, activity died off as quickly as it started. Come and check it out and make a post and perhaps we can get accruedint back there on occasion.

Anonymous said...

it's about time

you wrote quite well initially but it has since deteriorated both in content and quality.

won't be missing ya.

ta ta & good riddance

Peter said...

Thanks for the great stuff. Best of Luck.

tingting said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

It's still an all-time classic.

Best,
- psychodave

p.s. i think the coefficients in the Taylor Rule should add up to 1.0 because
a) You're compromising between attaining the unachievable and undefinable optimum output versus fully indulging the bond vigilantes, the ultimate poofters.

b) It's still the only way I can solve the equation

c) back in the 1970s at U. of Mich it was always considered kind of a trade off between capital and labor (restatement of "a)" above).

Ray said...

It's very sad to see first Across the Curve and now Accrued Interest close, as these have been invaluable resources to bond traders. if anyone is interested, we are trying to get a bond trading community going at www.BondSquawk.com

JSQ said...

AI! Many thanks for all your time and dedication to the blog. A true example of knowledge sharing, debate and education. You covered basics and the advanced areas and it's been an excellent resource. All the best with the new venture.

simacom said...

this blog is full of good pictures. it's inspired me a lot. thx.

Cell Phone

CrisisMaven said...

For anyone majoring in economics or finance: I have put one of the most comprehensive link lists for hundreds of thousands of statistical sources and indicators on my blog: Statistics Reference List. And what I find most fascinating is how data can be visualised nowadays with the graphical computing power of modern PCs, as in many of the dozens of examples in these Data Visualisation References. If you miss anything that I might be able to find for you or you yourself want to share a resource, please leave a comment.

credit repair said...

These are professionals who understand even subtle problems associated with your credit report and find the best solution to improve the same...

Chrisfs said...

I am very sad to see you go. I enjoyed your combination of bond writing (from which I learned a good deal) and wonderful Star Wars reference. It made for a nice geeky home to visit.
I suppose I will have to start visiting TheStreet.com.
Good luck and May The Force Be With You.

graceofgodgoI said...

I wish you the best. Too bad I found this too late. Please come visit my site http://publishitorbust.blogspot.com/
and leave comments thankyou

陽明山花季 said...

先告訴自己希望成為什麼樣的人,然後一步一步實踐必要的步驟。........................................

In Debt We Trust said...

Where am I going to get some good bond news now? You will be missed.

Anonymous said...

damn looks like I got to your blog too late. will look back and read your wise words. Good bye.

I love that other guy over at http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com if anyone is interesting, very accurate forecasts.

Buy thesis said...

this kind of blog always useful for blog readers, it helps people during research. your post is one of the same for blog readers.

buy Thesis Papers

hari said...

best

best

Flow5 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Flow5 said...

MMT is bullshit.

As I said on Dec 27: Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not “long & variable”. The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length. However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED’s target??), varies widely.

Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus:

2010
jan….. 0.54…. 0.25 top
feb….. 0.50…. 0.10
mar….. 0.54…. 0.09
apr….. 0.46…. 0.10 top
may….. 0.41…. 0.01 stocks fall

Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (10) to (1) from Apr to May.

Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-9). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically as real-growth sharply slows?)

Flow5 said...

In quantum mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that certain pairs of physical properties, like position and momentum, cannot both be known to arbitrary precision. According to Heisenberg its meaning is that it is impossible to determine simultaneously both the position and velocity of an electron or any other particle with any great degree of accuracy or certainty. -- Wikipedia

Joe Granville is saying that this is a the mother of all Heisenberg "double tops". He had refered to Jan & Mar. I've always said Jan & Apr month-end.

Flow5 said...

I don't believe in the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. Otherwise, how could a duck/pheasant/quail hunter put game on his table (the ammo doesn't curve by itself).

Credit Repair said...

Hello,

I just want to say that you choose a good mission.Keep it up.We are with you.
__________________
Self Credit Repair | Bad Credit Repair Report

site said...

In my opinion everybody should browse on this.